What happened to to Walnut Prices in 2022?

Many times of the last year I have been asked what happened, why did you not get paid? I will be answering that here.

Over the last 3-5 years the price of walnuts have been steadily going down, until it hit the perfect storm of 2022 where everything crashed and farmers lost their walnuts in some cases for multiple reasons, or they flat out did not get paid in many cases including mine. How is it possible that I produce an orchard of perfectly good nuts, sell them to my handler and not get paid? I will also attempt to answer this question.

History of Pricing

Just over 5 years ago walnut farmers where getting paid $3 a pound or more for their walnuts. That is a big number per pound and offers the farmer the chance to earn a living wage while also enjoying some of that income or having the ability to make farm improvements or buy equipment. Those who where not walnut farmers saw this and ripped out their kiwis, peaches, plums, even almonds to grow walnuts. Kiwis and peaches both have high labor costs attached to them, so the idea of having to find less labor for the harvest was also an appealing factor. Three to five years later as these new walnut orchards came into production, the price of walnuts began to go down. A little thing called supply and demand took effect and farmers began to get paid less. As this is happening, the walnut market in Chile is growing stronger. The market begins to bulge at the seems and the price continues to drop as production picks up. It’s 2016 and the price is at about $1.50. This is a basic working wage. Nothing fancy and very little extra at this point. And because of all the commotion in the last 3 years that price for walnuts (average) fell all the way down to about .15 in 2022. This is not even enough to pay for the harvest. Some farmers got paid a bit more and some farmers got paid nothing! Yup, you read that right. They worked an entire year, used their savings to pay for harvest, or were hoping to get paid for their walnuts to pay for harvest and the market crashed. Devastating.

Why Did The Price Drop So Fast and Furious?

I will lay out a few major factors:

Trump came into office and claimed he would help the farmers. He made sweeping changes without thinking about the consequences causing tariffs to rise to unmanageable amounts. Many countries such as India and Turkey just stopped buying Californian walnuts. They were two large buyers. Now take into account that there was already a surplus of walnuts on the market; handlers were unable to get rid of all their product. These countries that normally would have purchased from the US are now buying from Chile’s blossoming walnut market. If you are a business owner let me ask you this, when you lose a customer, how hard is it to gain them back? The United States lost a lot of customers and we are still working at gaining them back 3 years later. (see the link below)

Link to read more on tariffs https://www.fas.usda.gov/tree-nuts-2020-export-highlights

Next up Covid: Not only is there a surplus and high tariffs, now we have a back-up at the ports. Almost all Chandler walnuts are exported. Walnuts have a short shelf life and once they miss their time line for consumption the value drops drastically, obviously. The back up at the ports during covid affected a lot of agricultural products coming out of California, but the walnut market was already struggling, and this was the breaking point for them.

There are other factors that helped crash the walnut market, but those are much more complicated to explain here. Like larger handlers controlling the whole market or influencing the market in a negative way in order to sell their own product. Or just having dishonest or greedy handlers who, when put in a tight squeeze pass that squeeze onto the farmer, the same farmer who keeps them in business.

Walnut Quality

Last influence on the pricing was the actual quality of nut in 2022. Chandlers where hit particularly hard when it comes to heat tolerance. The drought was in full affect and watering was strictly regulated or prohibited in some areas. (not in mine) If there was disease in the orchard than that disease was made worse by excessive heat. Lots of die out on trees, and there were orchards with nuts that were just completely black or shriveled. (see Picture Below) I grow hartleys so I did not have that issue and my quality was actually pretty good. This again made buyers shy away from California grown nuts, dropping the price even more.

Chandler Nuts in 2022

How Can They Just Not Pay us For Our Nuts?!?

Good question. I am still trying to figure this one out. I grow hartleys and live next to a river so I did not have the water issues many had. I was hit with heat damage but it did not change the quality of my nuts, only damaged my trees. My Handler paid me .02 lb for my walnuts! This is flat out robbery. Their excuse was, because chandlers did so bad no one wants to buy my hartleys. Which I know is not a valid argument, and so do they. I should be paid for the quality of walnuts I sold them, instead they gave me nothing. That prices does not even pay for the gas to mow the orchard. it’s insanity. Bottom line, they can use whatever excuse they want and get away with it because of the condition on the market at the time. I am here to say that it is not ok nor should it be legal, but that is how it works in agriculture. We are at the mercy of all those in between folks who have their hands out till there is nothing left for the farmer. This is why I always say when possible, buy directly from the farmer. Clearly the system needs to change and needs oversite, until then small farmers like me take the hit. Or like in 2022, many many farmers flat out stop farming or take their orchards out, or just neglect the orchard all together because there is no money left to care for it.

It is a pretty sad story for walnut farmers around here. I have done my best to explain the what and why. I am hoping this answers most of your question regarding pricing, the walnut market and how it all happens in the big picture sort of way. If you have questions on variety please refer back to my essay on variety in this blog. Pretty easy to find. If you have any further questions or comments, feel free to leave them below. Please note this is not political and only states the facts regarding the walnut market.

Read More about The Walnut Crash of 2022

National Nut Grower- https://nationalnutgrower.com/news/2022-walnut-crop-loss-and-poor-nut-quality-what-happened/

University of California- https://www.sacvalleyorchards.com/blog/walnuts-blog/2022-nut-quality-what-happened/